thinning Moon (Etobicoke)

Flip dark winter chill. Spotted the thin Moon, as I left the house, about 10° up. Earthshine, again.

By the time I reached the bus stop, it was harder to see, in the brightening orange sky.

I wondered if anyone has modeled earthshine, how to predict it, the intertwined factors of sky darkness, the phase of our celestial neighbour, and our variant albedo.