Saturday, September 24, 2011

funny math

Something has been bugging me about the hoopla around UARS satellite falling from the sky.



Nicholas Johnson, chief orbital debris scientist at NASA's Johnson Space Center:

"We looked at those 26 pieces and how big they are and we've looked at the fact they can hit anywhere in the world between 57 north and 57 south and we looked at what the population density of the world is," he said. "Numerically, it comes out to a chance of 1-in-3,200 that one person anywhere in the world might be struck by a piece of debris. Those are obviously very, very low odds that anybody's going to be impacted by this debris."

1 in 3200. Let's review.

Um, that's not "low." That's not "very low." That's medium. One could argue high. High odds, as far as I'm concerned. If I can count it, it's high.

Winning at black jack, getting hit by lightning, winning the lottery, dying in a car crash, dying in an airplane crash, having a dry night at Mew Lake. Those are very low odds.

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